NRFI and YRFI Probability Calculator

The intended use of this page

For NRFI and YRFI Probability, nRFI probability combines Away first-inning expected runs and Home first-inning expected runs into a first-period scoring expectation, with Pitching and park adjustment reserved for the pitching, venue, or matchup adjustment shown on the form.

A separate stolen base probability scenario belongs on Stolen Base Probability; only compare the outputs when both describe the same event snapshot.

Market context

In the current scenario, a pitcher or lineup change can invalidate a projection before the posted price visibly moves.

Use the First Five Innings Moneyline only after deciding that first five innings moneyline belongs in the analysis.

Run the batter hits prop numbers separately in Batter Hits Prop, with a fresh set of values for the linked calculation.

Stress-testing the baseline

Hold the line fixed and lower Away first-inning expected runs in a separate case.

Revise Home first-inning expected runs independently so causes remain distinct.

Match every field to one event

• Away first-inning expected runs belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected away runs in the first inning.
• Home first-inning expected runs belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected home runs in the first inning.
• For NRFI probability, Pitching and park adjustment represents percentage adjustment to combined scoring expectation.

At this stage, do not copy a sample default into a live case without checking its source.

Formula mechanics

What the answer does not prove

For this market, near the market, input range and grading matter more than extra decimals.

To compare baseball moneyline model separately, open the Baseball Moneyline Model after saving this baseline.

Following the calculation

Within this calculation, use changed inputs to reproduce the calculation before entering current information.

Where the method can break

Run scoring is modeled as Poisson and does not capture batting-order dependence.

In this model, check listed-pitcher conditions, innings covered, postponement treatment, official scoring, and extra innings.

Preserve the baseline

At this stage, keep current availability separate from the stored estimate.

A closer look at the assumptions

The strongest comparison keeps model inputs and market information in different columns. Record Away first-inning expected runs and Home first-inning expected runs as assumptions, then record the quoted line or price with its timestamp. This prevents a later market move from being mistaken for a change in NRFI probability itself.

Look for dependency between the visible entries. If Pitching and park adjustment was already used to construct Home first-inning expected runs, applying both independently may repeat the same information. Calculate the simpler version first, add the disputed adjustment in a second case, and compare the two values of NRFI probability.

Common interpretation questions