Bankroll Growth Calculator

Start with the market definition

Bankroll Growth Calculator is designed to model bankroll growth using a constant percentage stake and expected win rate. At this stage, the answer is conditional on the visible entries.

Sizing reacts sharply to probability error, correlated wagers, and repeatability assumptions.

What each entry represents

Keep Starting bankroll on the event basis defined here: initial betting bankroll. Number of wagers records planned number of comparable wagers. Label Estimated win rate as observed, quoted, or projected. Its role is expected win percentage.

Average decimal odds is a separate input defined as average price. Stake per wager belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is percentage of current bankroll risked each time.

For the saved case, confirm that the baseline and adjustment did not both come from the same news.

How the formula works

For this market, the calculation uses expected bankroll compounds from expected return per wager.

Bankroll, price, and estimated edge are translated into exposure or a growth path.

The sizing rule assumes the probability estimate is credible.

Under the entered assumptions, a new market definition requires a new input set.

Information outside the formula

A personal exposure cap can be lower than the mathematical stake.

On this page, use an executable price for the exact selection and stake, not an earlier screenshot or an unavailable best quote.

Within this calculation, cash, restricted credit, gross return, and net profit may require separate accounting.

Example calculation

In the current scenario, the example is a formula check rather than a recommended wager.

For the Bankroll Growth Calculator, this independent example exists to verify the arithmetic. When using the result, its inputs are illustrative rather than a forecast for a current event.

Starting bankroll is set to $910 for this worked case.

Number of wagers is set to 105 bets for this worked case.

Estimated win rate is set to 61.56% for this worked case.

Average decimal odds is set to 2.063 for this worked case.

Stake per wager is set to 0.94% for this worked case.

Applying the Bankroll Growth rule: expected bankroll compounds from expected return per wager. Using the changed inputs, the result is $1,187.47.

For this expected ending bankroll example, keep the unrounded example inputs until the calculation matches, then apply the same unit checks to current data.

In this model, a mismatch usually indicates a unit, percentage, odds-format, or rounding issue.

The Bankroll Unit Size is useful only if that separate output affects the decision.

Before treating the gap as meaningful

A favorable average path can still contain long drawdowns.

Review sequence risk, not only ending bankroll.

For the selected event, a market move changes the comparison while model inputs may stay fixed.

When a narrow answer is unstable

Lower estimated win probability before accepting the stake or growth path.

Compare the baseline with a capped or fractional policy.

A longer losing-sequence case provides a cautious boundary.

The output is an expectation, not a path-by-path simulation.

For this comparison, review promotion terms, limits, push treatment, void rules, and whether stake is returned before comparing profit.

As a practical check, the formula cannot confirm that a matching market remains open for the intended stake.

Documenting a market snapshot

Store expected ending bankroll with event, selection, compared line, time, and source for Starting bankroll.

Store expected ending bankroll with event, selection, compared line, time, and source for Starting bankroll.

For the selected event, do not overwrite the old case during a one-field test.

Questions before using the result