Correct Score Probability Calculator

The intended use of this page

The working question for correct-score probability is narrow: estimate the probability and fair price of one exact scoreline. At this stage, treat event identity and calculation time as part of the input set.

Correct Score Probability depends on the event scope represented by Home expected goals and Selected away score.

For the saved case, a material participant, format, or source change requires a new correct-score probability baseline.

For this market, lineups, venue, competition format, expected goals, and schedule congestion should describe the same fixture.

Under the entered assumptions, a lineup change, red card, or format mismatch can overwhelm a small model-to-market difference.

From entries to the answer

Formula: correct-score probability = Poisson(home score) × Poisson(away score).

The model combines a scoring baseline with opponent and environment context.

Probability depends on distance from the line and the width of the scoring distribution.

On this page, printed units determine how values enter the formula.

Home expected goals belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected home goals.

Keep Away expected goals on the event basis defined here: expected away goals.

Within this calculation, check the timestamp and unit for Selected home score because it supplies correct-score home goals.

Selected away score records correct-score away goals.

In the current scenario, use source precision during calculation and round only the display.

To compare draw no bet separately, open the Draw No Bet after saving this baseline.

From output to market comparison

Compare expected scoring with the line after confirming period and overtime.

Fair price is conditional on the same distribution.

When using the result, the answer is most useful as a baseline that can be updated.

Worked example with different inputs

In this model, follow the arithmetic once, then replace every figure with a sourced value.

Begin with Home expected goals at its loaded example value and keep the other displayed defaults.

Method: correct-score probability = Poisson(home score) × Poisson(away score).

For the selected event, a mismatch usually indicates a unit, percentage, odds-format, or rounding issue.

Which input should be tested first

Hold the line fixed and lower Home expected goals in a separate case.

Revise Away expected goals independently so causes remain distinct.

Under the entered assumptions, a close result should survive a plausible lower-scoring case.

Use the Both Teams to Score Probability only after deciding that both teams to score probability belongs in the analysis.

Boundaries of the calculation

Exact-score markets are sensitive to small expectation changes.

For this market, check whether settlement stops after 90 minutes or includes extra time, and verify the statistic provider for props.

For the saved case, correlation, selection bias, and small samples can remain when every field has a source.

Recalculation triggers

Store correct-score probability with event, selection, compared line, time, and source for Home expected goals.

Record whether each Correct Score Probability entry was observed, quoted, modeled, or assumed.

At this stage, do not overwrite the old case during a one-field test.

Questions raised by the calculation