Kelly Criterion Calculator

Result definition

Begin with the question behind full Kelly stake—size a wager from bankroll, price, and estimated edge. For this market, no live price, participant feed, or result is loaded automatically.

Sizing reacts sharply to probability error, correlated wagers, and repeatability assumptions.

When dutching is relevant, calculate it independently with the Dutching.

Before replacing sample values

• Label Bankroll as observed, quoted, or projected. Its role is current betting bankroll.
• Under the entered assumptions, check the timestamp and unit for Estimated win probability because it supplies your probability estimate.
• Keep American odds on the event basis defined here: enter positive or negative American odds.

At this stage, a source revision should stay visible rather than being blended into an unrelated adjustment.

Formula mechanics

Growth and ruin describe repeated wagers rather than a guaranteed sequence.

Actual drawdowns depend on result order and dependence.

For the saved case, an arithmetic check does not validate the underlying evidence.

A separate arithmetic check

In the current scenario, this worked case verifies the method without describing a typical market.

For the Kelly Criterion Calculator, the sample changes the starting values so the calculation can be followed without implying that the numbers are representative.

• Bankroll: $910
• Estimated win probability: 57.75%
• American odds: -125

Applying the Kelly Criterion rule: Kelly fraction = (decimal odds × probability − 1) ÷ (decimal odds − 1).

For this full Kelly stake example, recalculate the example after any code or formula change so the page retains a visible arithmetic check.

When using the result, keep the example separate from the saved market case.

Event information that still matters

A personal exposure cap can be lower than the mathematical stake.

On this page, use an executable price for the exact selection and stake, not an earlier screenshot or an unavailable best quote.

Within this calculation, cash, restricted credit, gross return, and net profit may require separate accounting.

Testing result sensitivity

Lower estimated win probability before accepting the stake or growth path.

Compare the baseline with a capped or fractional policy.

A longer losing-sequence case provides a cautious boundary.

How to read the result

Treat the stake or growth figure as a policy output, not a command.

A worse probability case shows how quickly it contracts.

In the current scenario, compare only after confirming same event, selection, and settlement period.

A fractional kelly question belongs in the Fractional Kelly, not as an adjustment here.

Settlement and data limitations

Kelly staking can be highly volatile when the probability estimate is wrong.

When using the result, review promotion terms, limits, push treatment, void rules, and whether stake is returned before comparing profit.

Within this calculation, an event update can stale the input set before the arithmetic changes.

A useful calculation record

A useful Kelly Criterion record identifies period, market price, and projected-field sources.

On this page, keep event identity and timestamp beside full Kelly stake.

When using the result, keep source revisions and market moves as different update reasons.

Questions about the inputs