NRFI and YRFI Probability Calculator

The intended use of this page

Begin with the question behind NRFI probability—estimate no-run and yes-run first-inning probabilities from expected scoring. Within this calculation, keep the arithmetic separate from the later decision about price and stake.

NRFI and YRFI Probability depends on the event scope represented by Away first-inning expected runs and Pitching and park adjustment.

The Stolen Base Probability is useful only if that separate output affects the decision.

Market context

On this page, a material participant, format, or source change requires a new NRFI probability baseline.

When using the result, starting pitcher, bullpen workload, park, weather, batting order, and handedness should be current for the scheduled game.

In the current scenario, a pitcher or lineup change can invalidate a projection before the posted price visibly moves.

Use the First Five Innings Moneyline only after deciding that first five innings moneyline belongs in the analysis.

When batter hits prop is relevant, calculate it independently with the Batter Hits Prop.

Stress-testing the baseline

Hold the line fixed and lower Away first-inning expected runs in a separate case.

Revise Home first-inning expected runs independently so causes remain distinct.

For the saved case, a close result should survive a plausible lower-scoring case.

Match every field to one event

• Away first-inning expected runs belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected away runs in the first inning.
• Home first-inning expected runs belongs to the same period as the other entries. It is expected home runs in the first inning.
• For NRFI probability, Pitching and park adjustment represents percentage adjustment to combined scoring expectation.

At this stage, do not copy a sample default into a live case without checking its source.

Formula mechanics

The headline estimates scoring under the entered pace and efficiency assumptions.

The line comparison remains conditional on those assumptions.

Under the entered assumptions, supporting rows should reconcile with the same entries as the headline.

What the answer does not prove

The central estimate is easier to defend than a highly precise tail.

Represent source uncertainty with another case.

For this market, near the market, input range and grading matter more than extra decimals.

To compare baseball moneyline model separately, open the Baseball Moneyline Model after saving this baseline.

Following the calculation

Within this calculation, use changed inputs to reproduce the calculation before entering current information.

Begin with Away first-inning expected runs at its loaded example value and keep the other displayed defaults.

Method: NRFI probability = e^(−combined first-inning expected runs).

On this page, a clean reproduction is not evidence that the inputs are accurate.

Where the method can break

Run scoring is modeled as Poisson and does not capture batting-order dependence.

In this model, check listed-pitcher conditions, innings covered, postponement treatment, official scoring, and extra innings.

For the selected event, the calculation cannot verify whether every source was collected at a compatible time.

Preserve the baseline

As a practical check, start a new case when period, participant, settlement rule, or source definition changes.

For this comparison, retain baseline and cautious cases when Away first-inning expected runs remains uncertain.

At this stage, keep current availability separate from the stored estimate.

Common interpretation questions