Free Bet Conversion Calculator

The market question behind this calculator

Estimate hedge size and retained value from a stake-not-returned free bet. Changing the selection or grading window creates a new Free Bet Conversion Calculator case rather than an update to this one; do not use extra decimal places as a substitute for uncertainty.

Use the price offered for the exact selection rather than an earlier screenshot or a price from another sportsbook. One source of disagreement outside the arithmetic is that the formula cannot verify current availability, stake limits, or the sportsbook’s final settlement decision.

Reproduce the method before using current data

For the Free Bet Conversion Calculator, the example is deliberately separate from the loaded scenario and should be read as a method check, not betting advice.

Free-bet amount is set to $94 for this worked case.

Qualifying decimal odds is set to 3.92 for this worked case.

Hedge decimal odds is set to 1.365 for this worked case.

Exchange commission is set to 2.1% for this worked case.

Applying the Free Bet Conversion rule: conversion uses a lay-style hedge and excludes return of the free stake.

• Hedge stake: $202.22
• Conversion rate: 76.87%

For this locked promotional value example, review the formula line and field units if the supporting values disagree with the displayed worked result.

Check the scope of each input

The Free Bet Conversion Calculator uses Free-bet amount as its first input; promotional stake that is not returned; note when it was current.

Source Qualifying decimal odds for the exact event represented here; price used for the free bet; do not borrow it from a different period.

Hedge decimal odds belongs to the same snapshot as the other Free Bet Conversion Calculator values; opposing price used to lock value; save the source type.

Before calculating locked promotional value, check Exchange commission: commission on hedge winnings; its timestamp should match the market comparison.

Do not revise an unrelated field merely because a price move changes the economics even when the event assumptions stay the same.

How the calculation reaches locked promotional value

Calculation: conversion uses a lay-style hedge and excludes return of the free stake.

For the Free Bet Conversion Calculator, the page applies conversion uses a lay-style hedge and excludes return of the free stake; every numeric term comes from a displayed field.

Use Hedge decimal odds in the Free Bet Conversion Calculator only as described here: opposing price used to lock value.

Do not combine statistics from different periods merely because they use the same unit; their market scope also has to match; use a separate case when the market definition changes.

The Sports Arbitrage is relevant only if that separate result also affects the decision; it is not an extra input to locked promotional value.

Cases that can invalidate the comparison

Promotion and exchange settlement rules must match the entered assumptions.

Confirm the posted price, promotion restrictions, maximum stake, push treatment, and void policy.

A final pre-comparison check for this page is that the formula cannot verify current availability, stake limits, or the sportsbook’s final settlement decision.

If the analysis moves from locked promotional value to kelly criterion, continue with the Kelly Criterion rather than silently carrying assumptions across.

Keep a usable record

Store locked promotional value with enough context to distinguish market movement from a changed assumption; preserve the source and timestamp for “Qualifying decimal odds.”

A changed “Hedge decimal odds” should produce a dated second result rather than silently replacing the first; retain the original result for comparison.

Questions specific to this calculation