The Cost of the Spread
Every time you bet a football spread or total, you pay a tax to the sportsbook. At standard -110 odds, you bet $110 to win $100. That extra $10 is the vig—the house's cut for taking your action.
If you bet the Chiefs -7 at -110 and win, you profit $100. But you had to risk $110 to get there. If the odds were fair (no vig), the line would be +100 on both sides—bet $100, win $100.
The Magic Number: 52.38%
At -110 odds, you must win 52.38% of your bets just to break even.
This is the single most important number for football bettors. Hit 53% and you're profitable. Fall to 52% and you're slowly bleeding money to the vig.
Once you know the house edge, check your true break-even percentage with our Implied Probability Calculator.
Why Vig Kills ROI
- The 2.38% Tax: At -110, the house takes 2.38% off each side. That's money coming directly out of your potential profit on every single bet.
- Buying Points Costs Money: Moving a line from -3 to -2.5 might change your juice from -110 to -125. You just went from 4.5% vig to over 6%. Is that half point worth it?
- Season-Long Damage: Bet 200 games at $110 and win exactly 50%. You lose $2,000 to the vig alone. At reduced juice (-105), you'd only lose $976.
- Reduced Juice Pays Off: The difference between -110 and -105 is about $2.50 per $100 wagered. Over a 17-week NFL season, that's real money.
Vig Levels for Football Bettors
| Odds | Breakeven Win % | House Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -105/-105 | 51.22% | 2.38% | Great (Low Juice) |
| -108/-108 | 51.92% | 3.70% | Good |
| -110/-110 | 52.38% | 4.55% | Standard |
| -115/-105 | 52.17% / 51.22% | 4.85% | Acceptable |
| -115/-115 | 53.49% | 6.52% | Expensive (Avoid) |
| -120/-100 | 54.55% / 50% | 6.67% | Expensive (Avoid) |
Finding Better Lines
Not all sportsbooks charge the same vig. Shopping for better odds is one of the easiest ways to improve your long-term results.
| Book Type | Typical Vig | Best For |
|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2-3% | Sharp bettors, high limits |
| Circa Sports | 3-4% | Vegas locals, contest players |
| BetOnline (-105 program) | 2.5% | Reduced juice seekers |
| DraftKings / FanDuel | 4-5% | Promos, boosts, SGPs |
| Local book | 4-10% | Convenience, credit |
The Math on Line Shopping
Say you bet 100 NFL games per season at $100 per game. Here's what the vig costs you at a 50% win rate:
- At -105: Lose $488
- At -110: Lose $1,000
- At -115: Lose $1,535
That's a $1,047 difference between the best and worst juice. Same bets, same outcomes, different sportsbooks.