Performance Breakdown
Rating Scale Reference
How to Use This Tool
Toggle the formula at the top—NFL for pros, NCAA for college. Input your five stats (decimals accepted for season averages). The rating calculates instantly.
A high QB rating often shifts the line. See how this performance impacts the odds with our Spread Converter.
What the numbers mean: NFL ratings—90 is good, 100 is great, 110+ is elite. NCAA ratings run 50-80 points higher. The comparison chart shows both formulas side-by-side.
Perfect NFL rating (158.3) requires: 77.5%+ completion, 12.5+ YPA, 11.875%+ TD rate, 0% INT rate. This happens maybe 5-10 times per season, usually in blowouts.
NFL vs. NCAA Formula Differences
Don Smith created the NFL version in 1971. The NCAA adopted a different formula in 2011. Both measure completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Neither includes rushing stats, sacks, or fumbles.
Pro Tip: Recent Form Beats Season Stats
Always compare the QB's season rating against their last 3 games. A 110-rated QB who's posted 85, 82, 90 in recent weeks is trending down—and the market hasn't fully adjusted yet.
NFL Formula: Four Components
The NFL formula uses four equally weighted components, each capped at 2.375:
| Component | Measures | Range |
|---|---|---|
| A Completion % | Accuracy | 30% to 77.5% |
| B Yards/Attempt | Downfield passing | 3.0 to 12.5 YPA |
| C TD % | Scoring efficiency | 0% to 11.875% |
| D INT % | Turnover avoidance | Lower is better |
Formula: ((A + B + C + D) / 6) × 100 = Rating (0 to 158.3). Perfect ratings require 77.5%+ completion, 12.5+ YPA, 11.875%+ TD rate, and zero interceptions. Occurs 5-10 times per NFL season.
NCAA Formula: Linear and Uncapped
Formula: (8.4 × Yards) + (330 × TDs) + (100 × Completions) - (200 × INTs) / Attempts
No caps. No component limits. NCAA ratings typically run 50-80 points higher than NFL ratings for equivalent performance. A 160 NCAA rating ≈ 100 NFL rating.
Rating Benchmarks
| Level | NFL Rating | NCAA Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Elite | 110+ | 180+ |
| Great | 100-109 | 160-179 |
| Good | 90-99 | 140-159 |
| Average | 80-89 | 110-139 |
Aaron Rodgers holds the NFL single-season record at 122.5 (2011). League average hovers around 89-92.
Betting Insight: The 20-Point Rule
When one team's QB has a 20+ point season rating advantage, that team covers the spread 60% of the time. This edge gets even sharper in bad weather, where elite QBs maintain efficiency while average QBs crater.
Impact on Handicap & Spreads
QB rating differentials directly impact point spreads. A high QB rating often shifts the line. See how this performance impacts the odds with our Spread Converter. When one team's quarterback has a 20+ point season rating advantage, that team covers the spread approximately 60% of the time. A 10-20 point differential typically moves the line 1-2 points and correlates with a 55% cover rate. Weather significantly affects these numbers: games with 15+ mph winds drop average ratings by 8-12 points, rain reduces ratings by 5-10 points, and snow can drop ratings 10-20 points. Temperature below 30°F correlates with 5-8 point drops. Home/road splits matter—many quarterbacks show 10-15 point rating differences between home and road games. Dome quarterbacks playing outdoors often see 8-15 point drops, especially in cold or wind. For totals, games featuring two QBs averaging 100+ combined typically see totals of 48-52 points; when both QBs are below 85, totals usually fall to 42-46 points. Backup QB situations create immediate value opportunities—expected passer rating drops 15-25 points from the starter, and lines often move 3-7 points when a starting QB is ruled out. Most backups average 75-85 passer rating.
Rating vs. Spread Correlation
| QB Rating Difference | Typical Line Movement | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 20+ point difference | 2-4 point spread impact | ~60% |
| 10-20 point difference | 1-2 point spread impact | ~55% |
| <10 point difference | Minimal direct impact | ~52% |
What's Not Included
| Excluded Stat | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
| Rushing Yards/TDs | Mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson add major value not captured in rating |
| Sacks | Pocket presence and avoiding pressure don't count |
| Fumbles | Ball security issues aren't penalized |
| Two-Point Conversions | Passing 2PTs don't count as TDs |
| Game Situation | Garbage time stats count the same as competitive performance |
| Pressure Stats | Clean pocket vs pressured throws aren't distinguished |